74.5%
Overall Accuracy
Across 47 test games
HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT
2.92x
Odds Ratio
vs Random Guessing
LARGE EFFECT
0.511
Cohen's h
Effect Size
LARGE
0.000544
P-value
Statistical Significance
p < 0.001
21
Features
Model Input Variables
0.73
AUC Score
Area Under Curve
🏆 vs Vegas Odds
+24.5%
Our model outperforms Vegas consensus by 24.5 percentage points
Based on 47 games where Vegas odds were available
🎲 vs Random Guessing
+24.5%
Our model beats random guessing by 24.5 percentage points
Statistically significant at p < 0.001 level
💰 Return on Investment Analysis
Theoretical betting performance based on model predictions and confidence levels
+31.4%
High Confidence Only
📈 Weekly Performance Breakdown
Week 1
16
11
Not Significant
🔧 Model Features & Input Variables
Week Number
Division Game
Temperature
Wind Speed
Spread Line
Total Line
Home Season Games
Home Win %
Home Points For
Home Points Against
Home Point Diff
Away Season Games
Away Win %
Away Points For
Away Points Against
Away Point Diff
Win % Difference
Points Difference
Points Allowed Diff
Point Diff Difference
Home Field Advantage
📊 Accuracy Trends & Confidence Distribution
🎯 Prediction Confidence vs Actual Performance
📈 Cumulative Performance Over Time